Controlling economic spin's downward spiral
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10:58 AM PDT on Thursday, May 8, 2008
Political officials, economists and the media should stick to the facts in discussing the economy. The talk since the subprime mortgage meltdown last year has been about recession. And the "R word" affects the decisions that consumers, businesses and investors make.
Californians have more reason than the rest of the country for economic worry. Unemployment is higher here than in the nation as a whole, and dropping property values have eroded the wealth of the state's homeowners.
But the federal government Wednesday reported that the anticipated national recession has yet to arrive. The national economy grew by 0.6% from January through March -- the same growth rate as the previous quarter.
And the $150 billion in tax rebate checks going out will help prop up consumer spending, one key to growth.
Yet Time magazine asked recently, somewhat apocalyptically, "Can the world survive a U.S. downturn?" And the New York Times, since May of last year, has published 996 articles mentioning a recession. During the same period before the 2000 election, the Times ran 598 such stories.
And the politicians are keeping pace with the media. The Democratic National Committee is airing an ad that exaggerates gasoline inflation -- as if that were necessary -- and claims that 1.8 million jobs have been lost in the past eight years. But that's just wrong: The economy has actually added 5.4 million jobs since January 2001.
How political and media leaders talk about the economy has an effect on economic growth. Pessimism deflates consumer confidence. People will spend less if they are worried about losing their jobs.
So business profits decline and companies stop investing in new equipment. If revenue keeps dropping, employers start firing, fulfilling the pessimistic prophecy.
The economy has definitely slowed compared with the healthy growth Americans have enjoyed for the past five years.
The public should not seek happy talk from its leaders during such times. But nor should Americans let gloom-and-doom, agenda-driven spin shape their perception of the nation's fiscal health.



